Less than four weeks to the election that will decide if Andy Burnham gets another three years in control of Greater Manchester as Metro Mayor. Or will another candidate be the beneficiary of the current political shenanigans and get over the line first?
Let me give you my honest appraisal of each candidate standing to be the Mayor of Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham, Labour: a seasoned politician with a smart team around him. He is the favourite to win - it will be his third victory. Andy has become a little like Marmite, you either hate him or love him. His PR team do wonders getting him constantly in the press so his face is recognisable to many people. He is going to be very difficult to beat.
His weakness is his record as Mayor. Apart from the new bus scheme which has delivered slightly cheaper bus fares for some people, it is difficult to list what he has achieved in his seven years as Mayor. He is also the Police Crime Commissioner and is responsible for crime and policing. Crime has increased and Greater Manchester Police went into special measures.
Laura Evans, Conservatives: the Tories are irrelevant in the political landscape currently, their only aim is to survive as a political party after the general election. They have zero chance of winning the mayoral election but may come a poor second if the other candidates fail to make an impact.
Laura stood last time but was not automatically selected this time because it was deemed she did not do well – Tory vote share dropped by 4%. They went through a selection process and picked Dan Barker, who after only a few weeks defected to Reform UK as their candidate. In a state of shock, the Tories called upon Laura to fill the void. Their vote will fall again this election as voters switch or stay at home. Will they keep the second spot?
Jake Austin, LibDems: trouble in the two main parties is good for the LibDems, they should pick up votes from both sides. They came forth in the last election and lost their deposit. Their main problem is that no one knows what they stand for or their aims. In large elections they are a protest vote, in council elections they win seats.
Hannah Spencer, Green Party: this is the most dangerous party in the UK – I kid you not. They are wolves in sheep's clothing and are far-left communists. They come across as very caring and considerate to save the planet from the disease known as humanity.
Last election they came third but lost their deposit. I suspect they may do better this time because of the cancelled Labour promise to spend £28 billion per year on the green agenda when elected to government. This U-turn may push eco-friendly Labour voters into the arms of the Green Party.
Dan Barker, Reform UK: up to a few weeks ago they were not standing anyone at this election, but the Tory candidate decided to defect to be their mayoral candidate.
Will a recently resigned Tory appeal to the voters as a change candidate? Will Tory voters reject the possibility of voting for him because of the way he left the party? Will disenfranchised Labour voters pick an ex-Tory? These questions will be answered next month.
I was the Reform candidate last time. I came fifth and lost my deposit. I decided I would not stand for a political party in the future because you are not truly free to do and say what you want. There is always a puppet master behind the scenes pulling your strings to some extent.
Nick Buckley, Independent: I am the dark horse in this race, an outsider with lots of experience tackling social issues, a good personal back story, and some existing media presence. I am an independent with no party behind me – will this attract the disenfranchised vote? I suspect I will either do very well or come nowhere.
Independents do not win seats in large elections in the UK because of a lack of help and support, no finances, no party name recognition, and no invites to the large hustings and Press events. I have been campaigning for 14 months and seem to have a good online presence. But elections are not won on Facebook or Twitter but by grassroots movements which I have not managed to ignite – yet.
Many elections are won or lost through circumstances beyond any politician's control. Thatcher won her second term because of the Falklands War. Trump lost his re-election because of Covid. Stuff happens and the landscape changes.
UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan was once asked what was the greatest challenge for a statesman, he replied: 'Events, dear boy, events'. Several things have changed recently which may affect this election.
This will be the first Greater Manchester mayoral election using First Past The Post. The previous elections used first and second-preference voting. This meant that you voted twice which was slightly confusing but allowed your vote to go elsewhere if your first-choice candidate did not do well.
How will this affect voting? Last time you could vote for both Labour and the Greens or Tories and Reform, but now you only have one choice.
Will the collapse of the Tory party nationally push votes to Reform UK or me? Or will Tory voters stay at home?
Will the disillusionment of party politics benefit an independent candidate? The independent candidate in the Rochdale By-election came second which was a shock.
Finally, will George Galloway stand a candidate and capitalise on his impressive win in the Rochdale By-election? Will he take a substantial slice of Labour votes? Will he attract a large Muslim vote? And the most important question, will he damage Andy Burnham enough that someone else wins the election?
This election has many moving parts. With four weeks to go to election day, anything can happen. Or will history repeat itself where two-thirds of voters stay at home, Labour capitalise on postal votes, and Andy Burnham is crowned King Of The North again?
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