Has Ukraine changed the world?
Let us start with a fact. You do not have any understanding of what is happening in Ukraine. I have no idea. The vast majority of people have no clue. It is far too complicated for us to comprehend for we do not know anything about the country, its history, its people or its culture. Most people could not even find it on a map.
It reminds me a little of the civil war in the Balkans in the 90s. Borders that make no sense. Various groups of people with different cultures living next door to each other. Old conflicts simmering. Power grabs by ruthless individuals. Tribalism fostered by politicians for votes. Fear. Conflict. Revenge. Hardly anyone understood why Yugoslavia disintegrated into violence and genocide. Most people still do not.
The reason why Russia invaded Ukraine is not the topic of this article for as I have explained, I have no understanding. Most of my information on the war comes from the TV which has no nuance. Did Nato expand too far? Is Putin mad? Are Ukrainians really Nazis? Does Putin think he is a modern-day Tsar? Is the West perceived as weak? All I know for sure is that during war the propaganda flows freely and no report can be trusted 100%.
This invasion has changed the way the West sees the world in the 21st century. We genuinely thought the days of war were over in Europe. We thought that Nato and the EU had civilised the continent. We thought that mutually beneficial trade would make war unprofitable and therefore not an option. We thought wrong.
We have been reminded that we cannot control other countries and what their leaders want to do. We can punish them afterwards. We can even invade their country to make them understand that it is wrong.
The important thing that keeps us safe is our power. Financial and military power. Good manners and bilateral trade is not a deterrent to someone who wants what you have. An effective army and nuclear weapons are what works. This is the reason we have not dealt with North Korea but was happy to deal with Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. Some sticks are too big.
What will be the outcome of this war in terms of the West? The simple answer is we now have a new enemy: Russia. It is just like the good old days! We will now increase our defence budget to strengthen our armed forces while increasing its size. Many of our perceived 'so called' problems will disappear from public consciousness for we now have a real clear and present danger. The word Covid has almost disappeared from the news. Boris' party scandal is gone. The net-zero agenda is over. And hopefully, the woke nonsense will continue to decrease as it is replaced with worries over nuclear fallout. Being misgendered loses its offensiveness while you are being vapourised in a split second.
We have a serious question that needs asking. What if Ukraine is only the beginning of a seismic shift in world power and the beginning of the end of American total dominance? Regardless of what you think of American hegemony, we have done well out of it. A quarter of UN council member countries did not vote to condemn the Russian invasion, including China and India. Pakistan signed a massive deal with Russia last week to import gas and wheat. Saudi Arabia has ignored requests from the West to produce more barrels of oil to hinder the Putin regime. Countries are choosing what is in their national interest, the days of pledging fealty to the USA seem to be over.
The elephant in the room is China. A new bad boy in the neighbourhood. A new regional power has emerged and has its eye on dominating Asia, maybe the world. China is a real threat to the world. Russia is only a threat to Eastern Europe.
Is the world now split along the lines of empire? American vs Chinese, with the Russian one as a bit player and potential emperor maker?
A magician uses distraction to stop audiences from looking where they should not, for if they do then the trick is uncovered.
As we keep our eyes fixed on the East of Europe, do not forget that another East exists.
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